Balin is like the nicest guy ever in PJ's movies, honestly my favourite of all the characters. I want to make an army that'll represent him at the height of his power (his foiled expedition to Moria), but also encapsulate Ken Scott's portrayl of him, so I'll be using a young Balin model holding Durin's Axe from the LotR model. Here is my interpretation of Balin's (not so) epic expedition to Moria:

Balin with Durin's Axe
6 Iron Guard, 4 Khazad Guard, 2 Dwarves with shield
Floi
4 Dwarves with shield, 8 Dwarves with bow
Oin and Ori
28 Models, 6 might, plenty of special rules though

My question to y'all is whether or not it seems the slightest bit capabale of winning games. I'm thinking no. Anyone got any rad tips to make it a bit better but also not break the theme?

I think its hampered a little by the lack of combat heroes, but none of them are incapable. I think it has a shot at winning games if you shoot then charge in with your bowmen as Dwarf archers are pretty hardy in CQC

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Could drop a warrior to upgrade two warriors to Khazads and turn Floi into a might dwarf king?

With Dwarves in 500pts, you'll either have basic troops (not much wrong with those of course) and almost 3 warbands or just two warbands but with elite guys and better heroes. The latter should be able to do pretty well I imagine.

Troops are obviously great, Iron Guard in decent numbers, some Khazad Guard. Balin is an excellent hero, relatively soft in a sense because of his 1 Fate (then again, D8..) but Oin helps there (his other special rule is nice in combination with Durin's axe as well). A bit heavy on support heroes though, and especially Ori isn't useful from what I can see. Depending on what you face, neither may Flói be, and dropping those two and two warriors could allow you to include a King's Champion: combat beast, banner support.. and some points left to upgrade a Khazad Guard to another Iron Guard.

Ori and Oin are there for thematic purposes, i suspect. Poor chaps.

And I don't think a king's champion was at moria, if there was we can be assured the balrog would have been slain long before Gandalf's fall so I don't think he would fit with the theme.
Looks like a good list, I know I rarely have more then 2 warbands at 500pts

If the balrog killed durin, I highly doubt a king's champion would fare much better

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I've seen it happen....

Regardless of what can/cannot kill a balrog, I am going for theme here and as much as I think that the King's Champ is an awesome model, I'd rather stick to heavy theme. I have done a bit of revision and come to this:

Balin
6 Iron Guard
6 Dwarves with shield (could swap 4 of them into bows)

Erebor Captain with shield
12 Erebor warriors with spear and shield.

Oin, Ori

As I've said, I could drop warband two for a dwarf king leading some dwarves with shield/bow/khazad guard. That way I would have two fight 6 heroes (to outdo fellbeasts etc).

P.S: Can Oin's Prognostication let you re-roll your heroic strike dice, that IS technically a dice you roll in a fight?

Are you fighting a Goblin Force?

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This will be for tournaments, and goblins are probably the most popular force at tournaments so yeah i reckon I'll be up against gobbo scum, why?