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Regarding Erestor...
http://test.one-ring.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=27342		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Gwaryan [ Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Regarding Erestor...
Hey guys,just hoping someone with some experience using Erestor or with a brain for numbers can answer this question for me.

When it comes to using Erestor in combat, is it better to use his throwing daggers or a two handed elven blade? Assuming he's normally wounding on a 5+ with the re-rolling daggers or a 4+ with the two handed blade, I was wondering which was more likely to wound, and therefore the better choice for combat.

Cheers,
Jake.
Author:  Grungehog [ Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
always use the daggers, that way if your dice screw you you can try one more time
Author:  mertaal [ Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
I'm lousy with probability, so perhaps someone can correct me if i'm wrong.

However, as I make it, at 5+ you have a 33.3% probability of wounding with the daggers first time around, and of the 66.6% probability you will fail, you have another 33.3% chance.

So 33.3% of 66.6 is…. 22.1 Therefore, with the blades you have a 55.4% chance to hit overall.

With the blade at 4+ you have a straight 50% chance with no re-rolls, so the daggers are better.

Presuming my maths is correct. Presume nothing….
Author:  Grungehog [ Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Let us not forget using a weapon 2 handed also means you are less likely to win the fight in the first place, a safer bet is the re-roll (daggers) because what if you roll 2 dice both scoring 1, a 2handed weapon would be of no use here, whilst getting another 1 in 6 chance is a huge difference.
Author:  whafrog [ Wed Jan 08, 2014 3:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
I generally avoid 2H weapons on heroes, because it's their job to win the fight, and Might is too precious to be spend bumping 6 - 1 = 5s to 6s unless you're desperate. If you accompany heroes like Erestor with elves with blades, they can go 2H and it's usually a better result.
Author:  Zarathustra Suicuine [ Thu Jan 16, 2014 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
It could be an idea to use the elven blade one handed against other F6 heroes for the bonus to winning drawn fights.
Author:  mertaal [ Thu Jan 16, 2014 10:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Grungehog wrote:
Let us not forget using a weapon 2 handed also means you are less likely to win the fight in the first place


Elven blades win on the draw, so it does depend on the fight value of your opponent, which most of the time will be lower. Slight pedantry there, but in most cases it won't effect the probability. It'll either be in your favour or it won't.
Author:  Grungehog [ Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
mertaal wrote:
Grungehog wrote:
Let us not forget using a weapon 2 handed also means you are less likely to win the fight in the first place


Elven blades win on the draw, so it does depend on the fight value of your opponent, which most of the time will be lower. Slight pedantry there, but in most cases it won't effect the probability. It'll either be in your favour or it won't.

having a -1 to your to win roll is too great a liability regardless of the elven blade.
If you use your elven blade 2 handed your opponent just need one 6 to beat you, unless you use your might which erestor only has one to begin with.
His character is designed to use those weapons,
A2, with 1 Might -1 to win the combat +1 to wound IF he wins, and the fact he gets 3+ tie roll, it's not reliable or sustainable a technique.
whilst A2, no combat penalty and re-roll to wound is simply more likely to get kills whilst wining more fight too.
Author:  Beowulf03809 [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Agreed with all the above. Any high-Fight A2 model is best used securing the Fight win. The Elf Blades are important to crack hard armor but are best done with regular troops joining the Hero in the Combat. Might in such cases is best used to call an Heroic Combat and go smash someone else rather than compensate for a -1.

Remember...a lot of people talk in terms of rolling a 6 in a Fight but in most matches the Fight rolls are decided on values in the 3-5 range. If you just think "I can take a -1 because my opponent needs to roll a 6 still" that's only assuming you will always roll a 6. Doesn't happen. In most cases you'll be rolling 3, 4 or 5. So with a -1 you are really risking your success in the typical range.
Author:  VandalCabbage [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
I didn't know he could use his knives in close combat. In the Hobbit An Unexpected Journey rule book it says "a model cannot fight with a throwing weapon in the fight phase". p71. Am I missing something?
Author:  LordElrond [ Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
In his profile it says something like 'when throwing them or using them in a combat.'
Author:  mertaal [ Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Grungehog wrote:
having a -1 to your to win roll is too great a liability regardless of the elven blade.
If you use your elven blade 2 handed your opponent just need one 6 to beat you, unless you use your might which erestor only has one to begin with.
His character is designed to use those weapons,
A2, with 1 Might -1 to win the combat +1 to wound IF he wins, and the fact he gets 3+ tie roll, it's not reliable or sustainable a technique.
whilst A2, no combat penalty and re-roll to wound is simply more likely to get kills whilst wining more fight too.


Oh I agree they're better, as I said earlier in the thread :).
Author:  Grungehog [ Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
I often get 6's when rolling to win, as such I have come to expect wining fights a lot.
Basically if you are my opponent and you field Erestor you better use the noldorin daggers else you will lose the fight.
Author:  SouthernDunedain [ Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
cough weighted dice cough :P

And you can use the elf blade single handed and gain the bonus for drawn combats.
Author:  Grungehog [ Tue Jan 28, 2014 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
SouthernDunedain wrote:
cough weighted dice cough :P



LoL, I have noticed my red dice are particularly proficient in getting 5+ regularly, but then again the rolling surface makes quite a difference.

I tend to roll really well on softer surfaces like mats carpets and the likes but the RoBB plastic is hideous to roll on.

But back to Erestor He's great I just see the real benefit of using his elven blade when he has essentially bane of kings rule, if a hasharin had the option of a 2h weapon at the expense of bane of kings would you really use it.
Erestor is basically a hasharin but cheaper and better.
Author:  JamesR [ Tue Jan 28, 2014 4:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Grungehog wrote:
Erestor is basically a hasharin but cheaper and better.


That's debateable lol. In a straight combat Erestor should win, although it could definately go either way. But with a 12" bow, plus an elven cloak and the fact that (save for being knocked down) he can never be trapped. And if you're gooing to look at "better" by who will have the greatest impact on the battle-field. I'd say Hasharin

Own both, ive used both but I prefer the Hasharin
Author:  cereal_theif [ Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Personally I feel both are not worth it unless you play vs very specific enemies such as legolas who will snipe out other heroes but will struggle vs these two.

Erestor comes in a list with Arwen (natures wrath) stormcallers (call winds) Gildor (magic and woodelves) etc etc

Hasharin comes with Sulladan, golden king, taskmasters, chiefs (cheap might especially with a task master) Corsair captains, etc etc
Author:  VandalCabbage [ Wed Jan 29, 2014 6:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
I'd say that from the stats, the hasharin is better than suladan. He has bane of kings and is an extremely proficient troop killer as well as being vastly more survivable. The only thing suladan really has on him is the standfast and the might.
Author:  Tezzy [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
Sorry I am late to the party but regarding Erestor and the elven blade...

If you DO choose to use the elven blade two handed, make sure you feint! You are at -1 to roll, you might as well lower your fight some to reroll on 1's.
Author:  Gwaryan [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Regarding Erestor...
That's a nice idea Tezzy. Given how high the FV is for elf heroes I imagine if your opponent is say FV3 and feinting, you might as well do the same!
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