DomyHill wrote:
This really interests me because in my opinion any player ought to be able to spend their points and have a totally equal statistical probability of winning.
Well, the game is remarkably balanced, but I don't think it's because of an algorithm, it's because of playtesting. You could have an Uruk-hai with HA + shield, which costs the same as a wood elf with spear + bow. The WE could kill the Uruk-hai long before combat begins. Or a WE with spear + throwing dagger...now the elf has more mobility, but fewer shots, and once caught is more likely to die. So 1:1 there is no way to account for equal odds. But pile those 1:1 into an army, and it all seems to work.
I hate to flog a word, but *context* is everything. Gondor couldn't win against Uruk hai if it weren't for cheap heroes like Beregond that let you bring more troops or add some Fountain Guard. Rohan doesn't do very well without doing a lot of kiting, but if Rohan's opponent brought no bows it will be a long slow boring game with an inevitable end. Elves would probably win only rarely if it weren't for Courage, but the scenario and the dice rolls for ending a game will change how effective that Courage is...the longer Courage is in play, the better elves will do. These permutations are kind of endless, and you couldn't devise an algorithm for it. All you can do is start with the basic guidelines and tweak from there through playtesting.
And despite all that playtesting, some armies will naturally do better in some scenarios, there is simply no way around it. There isn't in real life either. An all-hero list can't be expected to do that well at Domination, but will probably do great at Lords of Battle. If you pick the wrong army for the scenario, you're kind of hosed. That's why we generally pick a balanced force, and then roll the scenario.
EDIT: forgot a huge one: terrain. People don't use enough, IMHO, but if you do it completely changes things up. Some armies will do better in certain terrain, outnumbered armies can use it to limit access or create choke points. And despite everyone's best intentions, the terrain on one side might not be as balanced as on the other...one side might get more cover, more woodlands, etc. No algorithm can account for that.
DomyHill wrote:
I don't have much gaming experience but is this the case or are there army lists that mean you can still win but the odds are stacked against you right from the start?
I'd give Uruk-hai and Dwarves that honour. It doesn't take very long as their opponent before a run of bad luck turns into a landslide of calamity. Because in the end it's all about wounding. Generally 6s are needed to kill them, whereas they generally, depending on opponents, need 5+ to wound.
A case could also be made for armies led by major combat heroes. I've had quite a few games where the Twins (fighting like mad) and a handful of warriors (shielding like mad) held out long enough for Courage to kick in and the opposition melt away.